El Niño Puts Pressure On 2026/27 Summer Season Plans
In a packed briefing room at the Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development, Permanent Secretary Professor Dr Obert Jiri did not spend much time on theory.
“The farmer wants to know when it will rain, where it will rain and how much will fall,” he said.
With early indications pointing to an El Niño pattern for the 2026/27 summer season, Prof Jiri has ordered the Ministry’s technical teams to turn national climate forecasts into practical, local advisories that can guide decisions in every district – from planting dates to crop choices.
He was speaking at a Summer Season Preparedness Meeting bringing together Chief Directors, Directors, Provincial Directors, Deputy Directors and District Heads from across Zimbabwe, as the Ministry sharpened preparations two seasons ahead.
What Are The 2026/27 Season Forecasts Saying?
Prof Jiri told the meeting that current outlooks suggest below-normal rainfall for much of the country, with some areas likely to receive near-normal falls.
FFA Explainer:
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that usually brings drier conditions to parts of southern Africa, including Zimbabwe. For farmers, this often means a shorter season, longer dry spells, and higher risk of crop failure if they plant late or choose long-season varieties that need more water.
In a year like that, the timing, location and volume of rainfall become even more important for planning.
“Forecasts largely point to below-normal rainfall, with pockets of normal rainfall, making early and location-specific planning critical,” Prof Jiri said.
From Seasonal Forecasts To Ward-Level Advice
The Permanent Secretary’s main instruction was simple: do not leave the forecast at national level.
He called on Ministry departments – from Agritex and irrigation to research and mechanisation – to work with the Meteorological Services Department and other partners to translate the El Niño signal into clear, local messages for farmers:
- Expected onset and end of rains by district.
- Likely length of the growing season in different natural regions.
- Areas where dry spells are most probable.
- Implications for dryland crops and irrigated schemes.
Those messages, he said, must then flow through extension officers, farmer organisations and local leadership well ahead of planting, not after the first storms.
This approach echoes national policy priorities in the National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1) and Vision 2030, which both stress climate-resilient agriculture as a foundation for food security and rural development.
What Should Farmers Plant Under El Niño?
Prof Jiri urged technical teams to let the forecast shape practical recommendations on what farmers grow and when.
He highlighted three priority areas:
- Planting dates: Use updated forecasts to advise on safe planting windows for each district, avoiding very early or very late planting that exposes crops to long dry spells or an early end to the rains.
- Crop choices: Encourage more drought-tolerant crops and rotations where rainfall is expected to be poor, including small grains in suitable areas.
- Variety selection: Promote early- to medium-maturing maize varieties and other crops where the season length and total rainfall are likely to be limited.
“These details should guide planting dates, crop choices and selection of appropriate varieties, including early- to medium-maturing maize varieties where rainfall is expected to be limited,” he said.
FFA Explainer:
Early- and medium-maturing varieties reach harvest faster than late-maturing types. In a short or dry season, they are more likely to set grain and reach maturity before moisture runs out, reducing the risk of total crop failure.
The message ties in with efforts already under way in many districts to promote drought-tolerant seed through contract farming schemes, presidential input support and private seed companies working with lead farmers.
District-Level Planning Moves To The Frontline
The preparedness meeting drew senior officials from all provinces, but the focus was firmly on what happens at ward level.
District Heads were urged to start convening their own planning meetings with Agritex officers, irrigation managers, farmer representatives and local councils to:
- Map local water points and small dams that can support supplementary irrigation or livestock watering.
- Identify wards where farmers should be encouraged to switch part of their land to drought-tolerant crops.
- Plan input distribution timelines so that seed and fertiliser reach farmers in time for the recommended planting window.
- Coordinate with social protection programmes in areas likely to face food stress if the season performs poorly.
For farmers in districts like Chivi, Tsholotsho or Mudzi, where recent drought years still loom large, such planning could spell the difference between scraping through and needing food aid.
In Gokwe South, for example, farmer groups working with local extension officers have already begun trial plots of early-maturing maize alongside sorghum and cowpea, testing how different mixes perform under mid-season dry spells. The kind of ward-level advisories Prof Jiri is pushing for would reinforce and scale up such local experimentation.
Linking Climate Preparedness To Long-Term Goals
The emphasis on El Niño readiness is not just about surviving a single difficult season. It also sits inside wider national and continental commitments.
Under AU Agenda 2063 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals, Zimbabwe has pledged to reduce hunger, cut poverty and build resilience to climate shocks. NDS1 picks this up directly, framing climate-smart agriculture as a pillar of structural transformation.
Turning scientific forecasts into practical planting calendars, variety guides and water plans is one of the most immediate ways to make those big frameworks real for the smallholder in Mwenezi or the A1 farmer outside Bindura.
It is also an opportunity to pull more women and youth into decision-making. Women’s groups already leading nutrition gardens and savings clubs can become channels for climate advisories and demonstrations of drought-tolerant crops. Youth with smartphones and data skills can help share local rainfall alerts, collect basic field data, or support digital platforms that carry advisory messages in local languages.
As the meeting in Harare broke up, the task list for provincial and district teams was clear: listen to the science, translate it into local guidance, and reach farmers early enough for them to act.
Or, as Prof Jiri put it, answer the questions farmers are already asking – when will it rain, where will it rain, and how much – with the best evidence available, and let that shape the 2026/27 summer season from the ground up.
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