High fertiliser prices reshape farming decisions and increase reliance on China ahead of Trump-Xi summit
Global fertiliser prices have surged sharply due to ongoing supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, significantly impacting farmers’ planting decisions and deepening dependency on China’s imports. The conflict in Ukraine, along with instability around the Strait of Hormuz triggered by the US-Israel-Iran tensions, has tightened the supply of critical fertiliser nutrients such as nitrogen and urea.
Farmers cut back on key crops amid soaring input costs
Jeff Winton, a dairy farmer in upstate New York, exemplifies the distress faced by many. After fertiliser prices spiked in 2022, he ceased planting corn, citing input costs as unaffordable. “It’s literally a perfect storm,” he lamented, describing the compounding pressures of rising prices, labour shortages, and healthcare costs.
Fertiliser inputs are vital to crop yields, and the steep cost increase threatens profitability and food security, especially as farmers grapple with rising bankruptcies despite government support.
Critical trade routes and geopolitical tensions
The Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-third of global seaborne fertiliser trade and about half of the world’s urea shipments pass—remains largely closed due to ongoing conflict, severely disrupting exports from major producers like Qatar and Saudi Arabia. These countries rely on access to cheap natural gas to manufacture fertilisers.
The closure extends the supply chain disruptions that began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, further pressuring global fertiliser availability and prices.
China’s role and fertiliser diplomacy
In the face of these disruptions, China has increased soybean purchases and deployed what analysts describe as ‘fertiliser diplomacy’—using fertiliser-related trade and investment to bolster influence ahead of the US-China Trump-Xi summit.
This strategy comes amid China’s push to secure agricultural inputs and support its food security objectives, but the rising costs raise questions about the sustainability and economic impact on global markets.
Implications for Zimbabwe and regional agriculture
Zimbabwean farmers similarly face challenges as fertiliser prices remain elevated due to these international supply shocks. Aligning with Zimbabwe’s National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1), emphasising food security and local inputs, there is an opportunity to accelerate domestic fertiliser production and reduce import dependencies.
Enhanced regional cooperation and investment in fertiliser manufacturing could mitigate vulnerability to global geopolitical risks and stabilise costs for farmers.
Looking ahead
The evolving geopolitical landscape surrounding fertiliser trade highlights the interconnected nature of global agriculture and politics. For farmers worldwide, including those in Zimbabwe, adaptive strategies, policy support, and diversification of supply sources are essential to navigate these turbulent times and protect food systems.
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