Returning Rains Restore Optimism for Zimbabwe’s 2025/2026 Agricultural Season
After a worrying mid-season dry spell, Zimbabwean farmers can breathe a sigh of relief as recent rains have begun to soak the fields once again, bringing renewed hope for a bumper harvest in the 2025/2026 agricultural season. The steady early rains this season have encouraged widespread planting, including in traditionally arid regions. This is an optimistic sign amid concerns that had surfaced during the dry spell, which hampered crucial farming activities such as weeding and fertiliser application.
In Matabeleland North, for example, 40 hectares of flue-cured tobacco have been planted, marking a significant expansion of this lucrative crop into non-traditional zones. However, for the past two weeks, dry, sunny conditions threatened to undo progress, leading to anxiety especially among smallholder farmers who depend overwhelmingly on rain-fed agriculture.
The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has since delivered reassuring news. Their forecasts indicate that the rains are returning, with weather patterns expected to remain normal to above-normal through to June. This aligns with the findings presented at the 32nd Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-32), which predicts favourable rainfall for Zimbabwe and neighbouring countries within the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
According to MSD head of forecasting, Mr James Ngoma, the mid-season dry spell is a typical feature of the annual rainfall cycle. “Peak rainfall generally occurs between December and January, followed by a dry spell lasting a few weeks,” he explained. “What we are witnessing is a normal seasonal rhythm. The rains are back and expected to persist through February and March, supporting the crucial growth stages of crops.”
The rainfall forecast depicts scattered showers across central and northern Zimbabwe, including major agricultural hubs such as Harare, Chinhoyi, Marondera, Kadoma, Kwekwe and Gweru. These regions can expect intermittent light to moderate rains with some areas experiencing heavier showers mid-week. Notably, Bindura is projected to receive increased rainfall as the week progresses. Conversely, southern parts of the country – notably Masvingo and Gwanda – may continue to experience drier conditions, although Bulawayo and Lupane might see isolated showers early in the week.
Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development, Professor Obert Jiri, emphasised the natural role of the dry spell and praised ongoing government initiatives. “We are absolutely encouraged by MSD’s confirmation of the rains’ return. Farmers and authorities alike have done their part; now we need nature to respond accordingly,” he said. Professor Jiri also affirmed Zimbabwe’s stable food security outlook ahead of the imminent harvest.
Zimbabwe’s Strategic Grain Reserve currently stands at 187,204 tonnes, which comprises 39,000 tonnes of maize, 118,000 tonnes of wheat, and other grains strategically stockpiled to mitigate any supply disruptions. The government has invested in additional trucks and established distribution points nationwide to ensure that produce reaches every corner of the country, aligning with the National Development Strategy 1’s (NDS1) emphasis on food security and rural development.
Early reports from the Crops, Livestock and Fisheries Assessment One (CLAFA1) further boost confidence. National planting targets have mostly been surpassed, with 103% of the maize target (1.8 million hectares) achieved, 132% of the rapoko target reached, and targets for tobacco and groundnuts exceeded. This highlights the vitality of Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector despite recent weather challenges.
Provincial metrics tell a similarly positive story. In Mashonaland West, the acting director of Agricultural and Rural Development Advisory Services (ARDAS), Mrs Evelyn Ndoro, reported that farmers have exceeded their maize, groundnut and tobacco planting targets. Sorghum is nearing the target of 46,000 hectares, with 42,000 hectares already sown. Cotton, however, lags behind due to limited seed access.
In Manicaland, Provincial ARDAS director Mr Nhamo Mudada expressed optimism about expected yields. Maize planting covers 274,839 hectares—3% above the provincial target of 265,000 hectares—with crops sown in mid-November flourishing, some benefiting from supplementary irrigation. Yields are projected to surpass eight tonnes per hectare, a significant indicator of success.
Such achievements underline government’s focus on supporting women and youth farmers, who play an instrumental role in local food production and shouldered many pressures during the dry spell. Efforts to increase access to inputs and extension services resonate well with NDS1 goals of inclusivity and economic empowerment.
Looking forward, as the rains continue and stabilise, Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector appears poised to deliver a strong harvest. Stringent measures to strengthen grain storage and distribution bode well for seamless market integration, benefiting producers from smallholder farmers to commercial enterprises.
In the context of climate variability—a growing challenge across Africa—the positive rainfall trends and government preparedness demonstrate resilience and adaptive capacity. This narrative of hope and pragmatic action serves as a testament to Zimbabwe’s commitment to food security and agricultural development.
FFA Explainer Box: Mid-Season Dry Spell
A mid-season dry spell refers to a short period during the cropping season characterised by reduced rainfall or drought conditions. Although it causes temporary stress to crops, it is a typical and natural phase in the rainfall calendar, often occurring between peak rainy months. Farmers are advised to anticipate and manage this spell with appropriate agronomic practices.
In conclusion, while challenges remain, Zimbabwe’s farming community is well equipped and increasingly optimistic about delivering robust yields this season. This success story is a powerful example of aligning climatic realities with policy action and community cooperation, weaving together the threads of NDS1’s vision for a prosperous, food-secure Zimbabwe free of hunger and full of opportunity for all citizens.
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