Strong El Nino To Bring Harsh Drought Risk For Southern Africa

The warning came from the sea, not the sky. Off the Pacific coast, waters have warmed so sharply that climate scientists now speak of a strong El Nino event, “the strongest in living memory.” Across Southern Africa’s drylands, that signal is already being translated into hard questions about planting dates, boreholes, and how much risk a family field can carry this season.

A new regional outlook released on Thursday by the 33rd Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33) in Swakopmund, Namibia, says El Nino will be a key driver of contrasting rainfall patterns across Southern Africa in the 2026/27 rainy season. Central and southern areas are likely to be drier than usual, while northern parts of the region could see wetter conditions.

The assessment, prepared by climate experts from national meteorological and hydrological services across the Southern African Development Community (SADC), offers a stark early warning for governments and farmers alike – from Angolan cattle posts to Zimbabwean smallholder maize plots.

What Does The Outlook Say For The 2026/27 Season?

From October to December 2026, SARCOF-33 projects below-normal rainfall across most of the SADC region. That includes large parts of the interior where rain-fed maize, sorghum, and livestock grazing dominate rural economies.

There is, however, a clear band of exceptions. Normal to above-normal rainfall is forecast for:

• Most of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC),
• Northwestern Angola,
• Northern Zambia,
• Central Malawi,
• Northern Mozambique,
• The southern fringes of Tanzania, and
• Comoros.

On top of that, above-normal rainfall is expected in eastern DRC, much of Tanzania, the extreme northern parts of Malawi and Zambia, and Seychelles.

From January to March 2027, the contrast becomes sharper. The SARCOF-33 statement warns that below-normal rainfall is expected across most central and southern areas, particularly:

• Angola,
• Namibia,
• Botswana,
• Zimbabwe,
• Zambia, and
• Parts of South Africa.

At the same time, normal to above-normal rainfall is forecast for northern areas, including the DRC, northern Zambia, northern Malawi, northern Mozambique, parts of Tanzania, and Seychelles. Eastern Tanzania and Comoros, in particular, are favoured for above-normal rainfall.

“We are looking at a strong El Nino pattern that splits the region,” one regional climate expert involved in SARCOF-33 discussions said on the sidelines of the forum. “For farmers in central and southern SADC, this should trigger immediate planning for a difficult season.”

What Is Driving These Contrasting Rainfall Patterns?

The SARCOF-33 communique identifies several major climate drivers for the coming season:

• El Nino – a warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean,
• The Indian Ocean Dipole, and
• The Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole.

FFA Explainer:

El Nino is a natural climate pattern linked to warmer-than-usual water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. For Southern Africa, strong El Nino events are often associated with reduced rainfall and higher temperatures in central and southern areas, increasing the risk of drought, crop failure, and livestock stress.

The SARCOF-33 statement notes that the current El Nino event is already strong and could intensify into “the strongest event in living memory.” For many in agriculture ministries, this phrase echoes the hard lessons of previous major El Nino years, when poor rains led to emergency food imports, distressed livestock sales, and pressure on already fragile rural incomes.

For farming systems built around rain-fed production, these ocean signals matter. They help determine when the first effective rains might arrive, how long the growing season could last, and whether dams and small reservoirs are likely to refill.

How Will El Nino Affect Temperatures Across SADC?

Alongside the rainfall forecast, SARCOF-33 expects temperatures to remain mostly above long-term averages across the SADC region from October 2026 to January 2027. Some central areas may experience cooler-than-usual conditions, but heat is likely to dominate.

Hotter days and nights have direct and indirect effects on agriculture and rural life:

• Higher evaporation from soils, dams, and rivers,
• Increased crop water demand, even if rainfall totals are similar,
• Heat stress for livestock, particularly cattle and poultry,
• Greater wildfire risk in dry rangelands.

For smallholders already wrestling with climate variability under global climate change, the combination of less rain and higher temperatures is especially harsh. It narrows the margin for error on decisions such as planting dates, crop choice, and fertiliser use – and increases the need for timely, localised information.

What Does This Mean For Zimbabwean Farmers?

Across the border in Zimbabwe, from the dry wards of Gokwe North to the sandy soils of Beitbridge, the SARCOF-33 signal points to a high likelihood of another tough rain-fed season for many smallholders.

Zimbabwe is listed among the countries expected to see below-normal rainfall across much of its territory between January and March 2027 – the heart of the main cropping season. That aligns with historical El Nino impacts, which have often cut maize yields in the southern and western districts that are already marginal for rain-fed cereals.

A communal farmer in Chiredzi district, who has seen several El Nino seasons in her lifetime, might put it more simply: “When El Nino comes, we plant with fear. We know the clouds can lie to us.”

This outlook places renewed urgency on measures that the Government of Zimbabwe has already highlighted under the National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1), from expanding small-scale irrigation to promoting drought-tolerant crops and climate-smart farming practices. It also sits squarely within the adaptation ambitions of AU Agenda 2063 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 2 on zero hunger.

How Can Farmers Use This Seasonal Outlook?

SARCOF-33 is, by design, a regional seasonal outlook. It points to broad patterns – drier south and centre, wetter north – but it doesn’t tell a farmer in Insiza or a horticulture youth group in Mazowe exactly when the first effective rains will fall on their field.

The forum’s main value lies in early warning for planning and early action. SARCOF-33 runs from Tuesday to Friday in Swakopmund to give governments, agencies, and farmer organisations a head start before seed is planted and budgets finalised.

In practical terms, the outlook can guide:

• Input choices – prioritising drought-tolerant varieties, early-maturing crops, and water-saving technologies like drip kits where possible.
• Risk spreading – combining staple cereals with drought-tolerant crops such as sorghum, millet, cowpeas, or groundnuts to reduce the impact of a failed maize crop.
• Livestock management – planning destocking or early sales if grazing is expected to be limited, and securing fodder where possible.
• Water harvesting – clearing and repairing contours, infiltration pits, and small dams before the first rains, to capture every millimetre that does fall.

FFA Explainer:

Seasonal climate forecasts give a probabilistic picture of how a coming season might behave compared to the long-term average. They don’t guarantee exact rainfall on specific days, but they can guide risk management – for example, whether to plant long- or short-season varieties, or how much fertiliser credit to take on.

Many farmers across Zimbabwe and the wider region already use local indicators – behaviour of birds, flowering of certain trees, wind direction – as informal climate signals. The challenge, and the opportunity, lies in blending these traditional cues with scientific forecasts from national meteorological services and forums such as SARCOF.

Who Needs To Act On The SARCOF-33 Warning?

SARCOF-33 is not just for scientists. It is a planning tool for a wide range of decision-makers across SADC, including those at the front line of food security and rural development.

• Governments can use the outlook to shape input support programmes, public works timing, and strategic grain reserves. For Zimbabwe, that may mean tailoring Pfumvudza/Intwasa support to emphasise drought-tolerant seed and stronger extension in the driest districts.
• Extension services can translate the regional forecast into practical, local advice – when to plant, which varieties to favour, how to conserve soil moisture – through field days, radio, and WhatsApp groups.
• Farmer organisations and cooperatives can organise bulk purchasing of appropriate seed, solar pumps, and storage solutions, and share risk-reduction strategies among members.
• Financial institutions can calibrate agricultural credit products and insurance offerings, recognising that an elevated drought risk changes the equation for both lender and farmer.
• Women and youth in agriculture, who often bear the heaviest burden when harvests fail, can use early information to press for inclusion in planning meetings and local committees that shape water, input, and relief priorities.

Across all these groups, the central message is the same: the 2026/27 season carries heightened risk for central and southern SADC. Waiting for failed rains to confirm that risk would be costly.

How Does This Fit Into Long-Term Climate Adaptation?

El Nino events come and go, but the pattern of more frequent climate shocks is becoming a constant feature of farming life in Southern Africa. For many rural communities, the line between a “bad season” and a humanitarian crisis is getting thinner.

SARCOF-33 sits within a wider push across the continent to strengthen climate services for agriculture. That includes efforts to integrate seasonal forecasts into national extension systems, expand irrigation and water storage, and support climate-smart value chains from seed companies to grain buyers.

For Zimbabwe, aligning these efforts with NDS1 and provincial development strategies can help ensure that seasonal warnings are matched with investments – in small-scale irrigation schemes, in training for conservation agriculture, in climate-resilient rural roads, and in digital platforms that deliver weather and market information directly to farmers’ phones.

Regional programmes under SADC and the African Union are also pushing for better integration of climate risk into cross-border trade, energy planning, and disaster risk management. The 2026/27 El Nino season will test how far those systems have come – and how far they still need to go.

A Season To Plan, Not Panic

Back in Swakopmund, as SARCOF-33 delegates close their meeting, the Indian and Atlantic oceans are calm on the surface. The drama is playing out thousands of kilometres away in the Pacific. Yet its signature is already written across the maps that will guide the region’s next farming season.

“The forecast is not destiny,” one senior meteorologist reminded participants. “It is a warning – and a chance to prepare.”

For a communal farmer in drought-prone Matabeleland South, that preparation might mean setting aside a few rows for millet instead of maize, repairing a broken contour before the first storm, or joining a savings group to cushion against a failed harvest. For a minister in Harare or Gaborone, it means aligning budgets, early warning systems, and social protection measures with the risk map now on the table.

The coming El Nino may be “the strongest in living memory.” Whether it also becomes the most damaging will depend, in large part, on what Southern Africa does with this early warning – in fields, in cabinet rooms, and in the quiet decisions families make as they look up at a restless sky.

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About The Author

Editor at Large

Farm & Future Africa (FFA) was born from the realization that Zimbabwe’s profound agricultural resilience and innovation needed a clear, authoritative voice to connect with the continent and the world.

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