The Season’s Verdict: Zimbabwe Faces Wetter Season, But Farmers Must Guard Against Violent Storms
Zimbabwe’s 2025/2026 rainy season is set for a vibrant shift toward normal to above-average rainfall, driven by favourable climate drivers, yet experts warn that this optimism must be balanced by immediate action to implement climate resilience strategies against the persistent threat of dry spells and flash floods.
The Forecast Shift: Favourable Winds for the Harvest
The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has delivered a significant update for the upcoming season (November 2025 to March 2026), projecting an increased chance of normal to above-normal rainfall across Zimbabwe. This hopeful outlook stems from several key global climate drivers moving in a favourable direction:
- La Niña Development: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is shifting from a neutral phase towards a weak La Niña5. This phase is projected to persist until at least February 2026, enhancing the likelihood of wetter conditions.
- Indian Ocean Dynamics: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), expected until January 2026, and a positive Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD), likely until February 2026, combine to further enhance the rainfall prospects.
Temperature-wise, the season will start with warmer-than-normal conditions in November across the country, but this will be followed by a period of cooler-than-normal conditions from December 2025 through February 2026. This contrast requires strategic planning by the farmer.
The Critical Timing: Don’t Rush November
Despite the overall positive outlook, the forecast contains a vital nuance for planting strategies:
- Delayed Start: The season is anticipated to commence between mid-November 2025 and mid-December 2025.
- November Conditions: Specifically, the monthly forecast indicates that November is likely to see normal conditions, leaning towards below-normal rainfall.
- General Start Dates: Historically, the bulk of the country normally records the start of the season between 10 November and 30 November. The extreme northern and southern parts average a start between the 1st and 15th of December.
This means the early planting instinct must be tempered with patience and the rule of waiting for the first effective rains to avoid ‘false starts.’
FFA Explainer Box: The Language of Climate
| Term | Simple Definition |
| La Niña | A climate pattern defined by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean. In Southern Africa, this pattern typically increases the chance of above-average rainfall13. |
| Normal to Above | A probabilistic forecast indicating that the total cumulative rainfall for a given period is expected to fall between 100% and 125% of the long-term average14. |
| Dry Spells | Short periods (usually 10–14 days) during the main rainy season, when rainfall stops completely. Although the total season may be wet, these spells can be devastating to crops if they occur during critical growth stages1515. |
Zimbabwe Anchor Section: Actions for Resilience
The promising forecast does not eliminate risk; the probability of dry spells, violent storms, and flash floods remains16161616. This necessitates immediate action that aligns with the national strategy of climate-proofing food production.
The MSD and relevant sectors propose proactive measures that must be actioned immediately:
- Water Security: Implement robust water harvesting, conservation programmes, and irrigation strategies to manage possible prolonged dry spells.
- Infrastructure: Develop contingency plans for storms and floods, which include proactively clearing drainage systems.
- Health Preparedness: Launch disease prevention campaigns and stockpile essential medicines, anticipating that waterborne diseases may increase during flood events.
The department will continuously monitor climate indicators and provide monthly updates, alongside daily and 10-day weather bulletins, which are key for capturing short-term events like the actual onset of the season.
Farmers must use this long-term forecast to finalize their preparations: choose drought-tolerant seeds, implement water harvesting schemes, and follow the MSD’s short-term daily forecasts to determine the precise moment for planting.
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