Very Strong El Niño Puts Southern African Farmers On Edge
By mid-August, while many rural families were still counting their last bags of grain, climate scientists were already sounding a sharper warning. The Pacific Ocean was running unusually hot, seasonal models were aligning, and a very strong El Niño event had locked into place.
That event is now under way, with seasonal forecasts pointing to a higher chance of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across parts of South Africa during the coming summer months. For farmers from Limpopo to Matabeleland, that combination means one thing: plan for stress on crops, livestock, and water.
How Strong Is This El Niño?
At a recent climate engagement hosted by the South African Weather Service (Saws), Dr Willem Landman, a meteorologist at the University of Pretoria who specialises in seasonal climate prediction in southern Africa, described what makes this event stand out.
“What distinguishes the current event is the unusually early emergence of a strong El Niño signal in seasonal forecasts,” Landman said.
Forecasts issued during late summer 2026 already indicated the potential for a strong El Niño, and each update since then has strengthened that signal. By mid-August, El Niño had become firmly established, with persistent and intensifying positive sea-surface temperature anomalies across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific.
“The event is now a mature coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon and is rapidly intensifying,” he said.
According to Landman, sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean have risen to more than 3°C above normal, placing this El Niño in the very strong category often used by climate specialists.
FFA Explainer:
El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. That shift disturbs normal wind and rainfall patterns worldwide. In southern Africa, El Niño years are often linked to drier conditions and hotter temperatures during the main growing season.
What Do The Seasonal Forecasts Say?
Seasonal forecasts presented at the Saws engagement show an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of South Africa’s summer rainfall region. The outlook focuses on three-month periods that matter most to farmers: October to December, November to January, and December to February.
Landman said the likelihood of below-normal rainfall grows as the country moves into the core summer months, when maize, soya beans, sorghum, and pastures depend most on steady rain.
Yet he urged farmers and planners to treat the signal as a probability, not a guarantee.
“It’s not a complete certainty that it will be dry, but there’s very, very little chance it will be wet,” he said.
El Niño tilts the odds towards drier conditions, but rainfall outcomes still vary between regions and individual events. Some areas may see near-normal showers, and heavy downpours can still occur even in a dry season.
Rudzani Malala, senior manager for disaster risk reduction at Saws, emphasised that regional contrast.
Malala said South Africa needed to prepare for both below-normal and above-normal rainfall, depending on the region. For example, one province could be facing moisture stress while another contends with localised flooding from intense storms.
FFA Explainer:
Seasonal climate forecasts do not predict day-to-day weather. Instead, they estimate how likely it is that a whole season will be drier, wetter, hotter, or cooler than the long-term average. Farmers can use this information to adjust planting dates, crop choices, and livestock numbers.
Risks For Livestock And Water
Experts warn that hotter and drier conditions will raise risks linked to heat exposure in livestock and strain already limited water supplies. When daytime temperatures climb and shade is scarce, animals eat less, drink more, and can lose condition quickly.
Reduced and erratic rainfall also means weaker pasture growth and slower recovery of grazing lands. Veld that normally greens up in November might stay pale and sparse, forcing herders to walk their animals longer distances and increasing pressure on boreholes and small dams.
Livestock keepers in South Africa’s summer rainfall areas have already been advised that they may need to obtain fodder, as below-normal rain is expected. That warning should echo across borders into Zimbabwe, Botswana, and other neighbours that share similar climate patterns.
Zimbabwe’s Farmers Take Notice
In Zimbabwe, where most communal farmers rely on rain-fed maize and livestock, a very strong El Niño in South Africa is treated as a regional alert. The same Pacific warming that shifts South Africa’s weather also influences rainfall from Beitbridge to Mutoko.
In Nkayi District of Matabeleland North, for example, a typical smallholder might keep a mixture of cattle and goats, and plant maize with a small plot of sorghum or millet. In a year like this, that balance becomes a lifeline.
Extension officers working with communal farmers in such districts often encourage:
- Switching some area from long-season maize to shorter-season maize or small grains.
- Delaying planting until there is enough soil moisture, instead of rushing to plant after the first light showers.
- Saving and baling crop residues early, before they are grazed off or burned.
- Reducing herd sizes slightly to match expected grazing and water availability.
These practical shifts support Zimbabwe’s National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1), which calls for climate-resilient agriculture and improved food security. They also line up with the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and global goals on climate adaptation and zero hunger.
What Can Farmers Do Now?
For farmers on both sides of the Limpopo, the forecasts are a warning, not a sentence. Decisions taken in September, October, and November can soften the blow of a harsh El Niño summer.
Practical steps include:
- Plan fodder early: Buy or produce hay, silage, or stover now, before prices jump later in the season.
- Protect core breeding stock: Prioritise feed and water for cows, heifers, and bulls that are essential to the herd’s future.
- Select crops carefully: Mix maize with small grains such as sorghum and pearl millet, and include legumes to spread risk.
- Watch local advisories: Follow updates from Saws, the Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department, radio bulletins, and ward-level meetings.
For women and youth in agriculture, who often manage gardens, poultry, and small livestock, small adaptations can make a big difference: harvesting rainwater from rooftops, using mulching to keep soil moist, and growing drought-tolerant vegetables and small grains for home use.
From Pacific Warming To African Fields
The El Niño now tightening its grip over the Pacific may feel far away from a kraal in Mangwe or a maize plot in Murehwa. Yet the link is direct: warmer ocean, shifted winds, fewer clouds, hotter days, patchier rain.
Scientists like Landman and practitioners like Malala have done their part in raising the flag early. Seasonal forecasts for October to February are clear enough to act on, even if they cannot promise exactly when the clouds will gather or how long they will last.
For southern Africa’s smallholder farmers, the question now is how fast that knowledge can be turned into action — in the form of fodder stacked high, seed chosen wisely, and water saved carefully for the months when the sun bites hardest.
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