Zimbabwe Bakers Secure Stable Bread Prices Amid Flour Cost Concerns
Bread is a staple food deeply woven into the daily lives of Zimbabweans. Recent concerns about rising flour prices threatened to push the cost of bread beyond the symbolic US$1 mark, sparking anxiety across both urban and rural communities. However, the National Bakers Association of Zimbabwe (NBAZ) has reassured the public that bread prices will remain stable for the foreseeable future following constructive discussions with government stakeholders and millers.
At the heart of the issue was the Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe’s (GMAZ) proposal to increase bread flour prices by four per cent. Given that flour costs account for approximately 43 per cent of the total expense involved in baking bread, this increment had the potential to raise the price of a single loaf by nearly two cents — an increase likely to be passed on to consumers. For many low-income families in Zimbabwe, even such a marginal rise can have significant implications on food security and household budgets.
Elvis Ncube, NBAZ president, formally communicated these concerns in a letter dated 24 October 2025 to the Minister of Industry and Commerce, Mangaliso Ndlovu. The NBAZ’s advocacy highlighted the fragile balance within the bread supply chain and the cost pressures faced by bakers since January 2024, particularly following changes in the tax framework surrounding bread production.
“These cost pressures have been exacerbated by the government’s shift in Value Added Tax (VAT) treatment — moving bread from a zero-rated to a tax-exempt status,” Ncube explained. This adjustment meant bakers lost the ability to reclaim input VAT (a tax paid on goods and services used in their operations), creating added financial strain and squeezing profit margins even more tightly.
In an encouraging development, recent multistakeholder engagements involving NBAZ, grain millers, and the Ministries of Industry and Commerce and Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development led to a resolution that forestalled the imminent flour price hike. The Agricultural Marketing Authority (AMA) clarified Statutory Instrument 87 and published the import parity differentials, which grain importers are now mandated to pay — bringing transparency to import costs and effectively stabilising flour prices.
Elvis Ncube confirmed to local media, “There will not be any bread price increase unless there are other significant changes to our cost structures.”
This resolution aligns neatly with Zimbabwe’s National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1), which emphasises food security, price stability, and value chain efficiency. Securing affordable staple foods like bread contributes to socio-economic stability, reinforces support for vulnerable groups such as women, youth, and children, and stimulates confidence within local agribusiness sectors.
FFA Explainer Box: Value Added Tax (VAT) Zero-Rated vs Tax-Exempt
Zero-rated VAT means goods are taxable but the seller can reclaim VAT paid on inputs. Tax-exempt goods are not subject to VAT; however, sellers cannot reclaim input VAT, increasing production costs.
A vivid example of resilience and adaptability amid these challenges is Tsitsi Mhike, a Zimbabwean baker from Harare who runs a small bread bakery. Tsitsi reported: “We were worried that flour prices would make bread unaffordable for our customers. Since our community relies heavily on affordable bread, any price hike could reduce demand and threaten livelihoods. NBAZ’s efforts to stabilise prices have been a sigh of relief.”
Looking forward, the NBAZ urges the government to revisit the tax framework and consider reclassifying bread under VAT from tax-exempt to zero-rated. This change would enable bakers to reclaim input VAT, easing cost pressures and enhancing the sustainability of bakeries across Zimbabwe.
Bakers also continue to face other operational challenges, including fluctuating energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and currency volatility — all of which require continued policy attention and sectoral support.
The government’s proactive interventions and transparent communication through the AMA exemplify how coordinated policy and industry collaboration can effectively resolve economic pressures on essential goods. This approach not only preserves consumer affordability but secures the livelihoods of thousands involved in the baking and allied supply chains.
In conclusion, while global economic uncertainties linger, Zimbabwe’s bread industry demonstrates that with positive dialogue, supportive policy frameworks, and sector engagement, critical food staples can remain accessible to all — upholding the country’s commitment under the NDS1 to inclusive growth, food security, and improved wellbeing for all citizens.
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