Zimbabwe Races To Prepare Farmers For 2026/27 Super El Niño Season
HARARE – 09 June 2026. In the wood-panelled main boardroom of the Ngungunyana Building, the mood was sober but determined as Zimbabwe’s top agriculture officials and development partners confronted an uncomfortable truth: the country is facing another major El Niño, and this time there is no excuse for being caught off guard.
Early climate models are pointing to an 80 percent probability of El Niño conditions in the 2026/27 agricultural season. With that warning on the table, the Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development has rallied partners to shift decisively from crisis response to early warning and early action, anchoring the next season on preparation rather than prayer.
The message from the chair of the meeting, Permanent Secretary Professor Dr Obert Jiri, was direct. Zimbabwe, he said, cannot afford to relive the worst of the 2023/24 drought.
“The question is not if another shock will come, but how prepared we are,” Prof Jiri told delegates. “Our response must shift from reactive emergency management to proactive, systemic resilience-building.”
Cost Of Unpreparedness Laid Bare
The high-level Agriculture Development Working Group Meeting, held on Tuesday, 9 June 2026, brought together senior Ministry officials, representatives from the World Food Programme (WFP), the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), bilateral donors, and implementing partners active in Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector.
Data presented in the room painted a stark picture of what is at stake if the country fails to act early. Historical analysis shows that El Niño events cost Zimbabwe an average of USD 325 million in maize production losses – losses that early action can significantly reduce.
The 2023/24 agricultural season, one of the most severe droughts in a century, saw maize losses of about USD 607 million and the death of more than 44,000 cattle. Those numbers are now driving a sharpened resolve to move early and decisively.
Water security figures were just as sobering. Lake Kariba fell to only 0.8 percent of usable storage in December 2022, while borehole failures spiked during recent El Niño episodes – more than 12,000 dried up in 2015/16, and a further 6,000 in 2023/24.
“This is not a future scenario; it is a recurring crisis,” Prof Jiri said. “The frequency of El Niño events is increasing; they now occur every three to four years, compared to every five to seven years in the 1980s.”
February 2024 recorded the lowest rainfall in over 100 years in parts of the country, reinforcing a message farmers in districts like Chivi, Gokwe, and Beitbridge already feel in their soil: the climate shocks are coming faster and hitting harder.
What Is Early Warning, Early Action?
FFA Explainer:
Early Warning, Early Action (EWEA) is a framework that connects climate forecasts and real-time data to early, pre-planned interventions. Instead of waiting for drought to devastate crops and livestock, institutions trigger agreed actions in advance – such as distributing drought-tolerant seed, pre-positioning grain, drilling boreholes, or providing feed for livestock – once pre-defined climate thresholds are reached.
Early Warning, Early Action As Strategic Imperative
The core of Tuesday’s discussions was how to make EWEA the organising principle of Zimbabwe’s 2026/27 agricultural season.
Prof Jiri outlined a concrete early action agenda and urged partners to jointly finalise and co-finance a unified preparedness and mitigation plan well before the expected onset of dry conditions from April 2027.
Key priorities include:
- Strengthening localised agro-weather forecasting so that farmers in wards from Tsholotsho to Mutoko receive timely, area-specific information.
- Establishing real-time pest and disease reporting systems to stop outbreaks before they spread.
- Building up the Enhanced Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) to 450,000 metric tonnes, pre-positioned ahead of the dry spell.
- Scaling climate-smart practices such as Pfumvudza/Intwasa conservation agriculture to more vulnerable districts.
“We already know what to do, when to act, and how to execute,” Prof Jiri said. “Drawing on your expertise, we know how many people will be affected. Together, we can map where they will be affected, and together we can plan how early and how effectively we can respond, even as the shock is approaching.”
The Ministry also announced the establishment of an AI-powered groundwater monitoring unit that will track aquifer levels in real time and signal when boreholes are at risk. Solar-powered boreholes tied to Village Business Units (VBUs) are being prioritised so communities can keep producing food even in poor rainfall seasons.
FFA Explainer:
AI-powered groundwater monitoring combines sensors in boreholes and aquifers with data analysis tools to track water levels continuously. When levels drop below safe thresholds, alerts can be sent to local authorities and farmers, triggering measures such as rationing, maintenance, or drilling of backup boreholes before communities lose water completely.
Pfumvudza/Intwasa: Proof That Preparation Works
A central pillar of the early action strategy is the accelerated roll-out of the Pfumvudza/Intwasa conservation agriculture model, which uses mulching, precise planting basins, and careful input management to protect yields in dry conditions.
Evidence from the 2023/24 season, when many conventional fields failed, has strengthened confidence in Pfumvudza. Even in a harsh El Niño year, Zimbabwe produced a record wheat harvest of 562,091 metric tonnes – a result the Ministry links to a deliberate, well-resourced food security strategy activated before the drought peaked.
“History shows that El Niño need not become a catastrophe,” Prof Jiri said. “The 1991/92 drought was a national emergency. The 2023/24 drought, while severe, saw us cope better due to preparedness. The difference between a national catastrophe and a manageable crisis is preparedness, which is precisely why we are here today.”
Full adoption of Pfumvudza/Intwasa remains a top priority for the 2026/27 season, with partner support sought to expand its reach in the driest, poorest wards.
In rural Mhondoro-Ngezi, for example, farmers working with their local Agricultural Business Advisor have already started preparing Pfumvudza plots in June, lining up mulch and manure long before the first clouds gather. The hope is that, come November, they will plant into moisture and not into dust.
WFP’s Building Blocks And FAO’s Country Programme
Development partners used the meeting to signal their readiness to anchor their investments around Zimbabwe’s resilience agenda.
On behalf of WFP, representatives outlined a new Building Blocks Programme, grounded in the agency’s Country Strategic Plan for 2027–2031. The programme rests on three pillars: emergency preparedness, strengthening food systems, and services on demand.
“The whole essence is how we create synergies and how we work together to attain our shared objectives,” said WFP Representative Billy Mwinga. “We are taking a much more holistic approach to resilience. Previously, we implemented discrete projects. Going forward, we want to focus on sustainability, impact, and scale.”
WFP’s Building Blocks will support Zimbabwe’s move from rain-fed to irrigated, climate-smart production, including investments in large water reservoirs, solar-powered irrigation, and green energy solutions for smallholder farmers. The agency also committed to bolstering anticipatory action systems that allow funds, food, and inputs to be pre-positioned and released automatically once climate triggers are reached.
FAO echoed this collaborative stance. The organisation is currently designing its next Country Programme Framework for Zimbabwe and has pledged to align it with priorities set out by the Ministry and partners at this meeting.
“We stand ready to work alongside the Ministry and our partners to achieve results,” said Dr Patrice Talla, FAO Sub-regional Coordinator. “The Country Programme Framework is not a document for FAO alone. It is a joint document formulated by FAO, the Government, and our partners to define key intervention priorities, to guide not only our work, but other partners operating in the country.”
FAO proposed a high-level review forum to track implementation of shared priorities more closely. The agency also committed technical support in agriculture, food systems, and policy, and will work with IFAD and bilateral donors to mobilise larger-scale financing.
For Zimbabwe’s smallholders – from horticulture producers in Mutare to cattle farmers in Matabeleland South – this could mean more predictable, better coordinated support rather than scattered, short-term projects.
Village Business Units As Rural Resilience Anchors
One of the most concrete adaptation models discussed was the Village Business Unit. VBUs are integrated community hubs that typically combine a one-hectare drip-irrigated plot, two fishponds, and a water trough, allowing households to diversify food and income beyond rain-fed maize.
In Mangwe District, a VBU can mean a child still drinks milk in September when nearby dryland fields have long withered. In Mutoko, it can mean farmers supplying vegetables to local schools long after the rains have ended.
Prof Jiri urged partners to support VBUs along the entire value chain, not just at production stage.
“If 1,000 VBUs are each producing 1,000 cabbages, they all need a market, in this country and beyond,” he said. “We must follow through the entire value chain to capture the benefits at every stage.”
The Ministry highlighted the Water Drought Mitigation Centre model, an expanded VBU concept piloted during the 2023/24 El Niño to serve livestock-keeping communities. It combines water, feed, and fodder support for animals with food security interventions for households, and has been deployed across 635 high-risk wards.
FFA Explainer:
A Village Business Unit is a village-level commercial hub built around reliable water. It typically includes irrigated crop production, aquaculture, and livestock watering points, plus training and market linkages. The aim is to turn a water point into a local business centre where families can earn income all year, not only in the rainy season.
Anchored In NDS2 And A USD 15.8 Billion Vision
The meeting was firmly framed within Zimbabwe’s broader economic agenda. Government is rolling out the Agriculture Food Systems and Rural Transformation Strategy 2 (AFSRTS 2: 2026–2030) under the National Development Strategy 2 (NDS2), targeting a USD 15.8 billion agricultural industry by 2030, up from USD 10.3 billion in 2025.
The strategy includes ambitious production targets, such as:
- Raising food crop output by 90 percent to 6.1 million metric tonnes.
- Expanding milk production by 75 percent to 200 million litres.
- Boosting broiler meat production by 75 percent to 362,000 metric tonnes.
These align closely with the aspirations of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals on zero hunger, decent work, and climate action.
Yet, Prof Jiri stressed that these targets cannot be met if climate shocks repeatedly push farmers backwards.
“Development partner interventions have been invaluable, but for maximum impact, they must be harmonised with national priorities,” he said. “Uncoordinated projects, however well-intentioned, lead to duplication, gaps, and diluted impact.”
The meeting agreed to create a joint technical working group under the development partners’ platform, with clear terms of reference. The group will run quarterly reviews, promote real-time data sharing through the Vision 2030 Agriculture Livelihoods Tracker (VALT30), and ensure mutual accountability for commitments.
Climate-smart agriculture investments for women and youth, especially, are expected to feature strongly within this coordinated framework.
What Government Is Asking From Partners
As the session drew towards a close, the Permanent Secretary issued a pointed call to development partners.
The Ministry is asking partners to align their programmes with the AFSRTS 2 framework; pool resources into a unified 2026/27 El Niño Mitigation Plan; and shift away from fragmented, parallel appeals. Coordination, harmonisation, and speed were described as the order of the day.
“We need candid dialogue, constructive challenge, and joint problem-solving,” Prof Jiri said. “Let us move from dialogue to joint action. Our farmers, our communities, and our nation are counting on the strength of this partnership. I look forward to productive discussions and, most importantly, a clear, actionable, and co-financed roadmap for the seasons ahead.”
The Ministry made it clear it will not wait for El Niño to materialise before acting. With an 80 percent probability already flagged for the 2026/27 season, the window for meaningful early action is now.
What Government Is Asking From Farmers
Farmers themselves were given an equally clear message: do not wait for the rains to fail before you change how you farm.
Key actions encouraged by the Ministry include:
- Adopt Pfumvudza/Intwasa: Every household is urged to prepare its Pfumvudza plot before the season opens, using mulch, manure, and correct plant spacing to protect yields in dry spells.
- Diversify beyond rain-fed crops: Engage with your nearest VBU where drip irrigation, fishponds, and livestock services are available to keep production going even when rain is scarce.
- Register with your Agricultural Business Advisor: These officers, formerly known as extension officers, are a key channel for early warning forecasts, improved seed varieties, and advice on climate-smart planting dates.
- Build a household reserve: Store grain and fodder early. Avoid selling all your harvest. A family-level reserve is the first line of defence when a dry spell bites.
- Watch and act on early warning signs: Follow agro-weather updates via community radio, your VBU, and government advisories. When a dry signal is issued, act – do not wait to see if it worsens.
For 29-year-old farmer Tatenda in Wedza, that could mean prioritising a well-prepared Pfumvudza plot, linking into a local VBU for off-season vegetable production, and storing at least a few tonnes of maize in a family granary instead of selling every bag to the first trader who arrives in the village.
Safe household grain storage and fodder conservation will be as important as seed choice in the coming seasons.
“El Niño need not mean catastrophe,” Prof Jiri reminded the gathering. “The difference between a national emergency and a manageable season is simply preparedness. Our farmers have proven they can rise to this challenge, and with the right support in place, they will do so again.”
From Forecast To Harvest
Outside the Ngungunyana Building, the winter sun hung low over Harare’s skyline as delegates filtered out, clutching briefing papers and exchanging business cards. The hard work now moves from the boardroom table to the field, the borehole, the storage shed, and the spreadsheet.
The Agriculture Development Working Group Meeting on 9 June 2026 set out an ambitious but grounded agenda: translate early warnings into early action, and early action into harvests that can withstand a super El Niño.
If government, partners, and farmers – from maize growers in Mashonaland West to goat keepers in Matabeleland North – pull in the same direction, Zimbabwe could turn a looming climate threat into a test it is ready to pass.
Together, as the Ministry’s closing sentiment suggested, the country has a chance to turn the forecast into a plan, the plan into action, and the action into a harvest – because a Zimbabwe that prepares together, prospers together.
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