Zimbabwe’s Coal Exports to China and Their Role in Supporting China’s Coal-Based Urea Production
China’s impressive ability to maintain ample urea fertiliser supplies, largely insulated from global turmoil, owes much to its extensive use of coal as a feedstock for urea production. An estimated 78% of China’s urea is produced using coal instead of natural gas, leveraging the country’s abundant coal resources to reduce reliance on volatile energy imports. This strategic approach has allowed China to keep domestic urea prices roughly a third of international benchmarks, enabling its farmers to continue cultivating nitrogen-demanding crops like corn at scale.
Against this backdrop, Zimbabwe’s coal industry has drawn attention as a potential supplier amid China’s massive coal demand. Zimbabwe possesses significant coal reserves—estimates suggest over 30 billion tonnes—positioning the country as a prospective regional exporter. However, current data indicates that Zimbabwe’s coal exports to China remain limited, with most exports traditionally directed towards regional markets including South Africa and Zambia for power generation and industrial uses.
FFA Explainer:
Coal-based urea production uses coal as the primary feedstock to manufacture urea fertiliser. This process can reduce costs and energy import dependence compared to natural gas-based urea production.
China’s coal import patterns suggest limited direct sourcing from Zimbabwe thus far, largely due to logistical and infrastructural constraints. Instead, China imports coal mostly from Australia, Indonesia, Russia, and Mongolia. Zimbabwe’s landlocked status and underdeveloped rail and port infrastructure pose challenges for bulk exports to distant markets like China.
Nevertheless, Zimbabwe’s coal sector is consolidating efforts to modernise infrastructure and scale production to access larger export markets, including China. Government initiatives aim to improve railway lines, bulk handling, and energy cooperation frameworks in alignment with the country’s broader National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1), focusing on mining sector beneficiation and regional trade integration.
China’s coal-based urea resilience in a global crisis
The global fertiliser market has been disrupted significantly by geopolitical conflicts, notably the war in Iran which has constrained ocean shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. This has driven a roughly 70% surge in international urea prices since February 2026. Yet China’s domestic urea costs have remained stable and low due to their coal-based production, currently priced around $255-$267 per metric ton compared to $700-$780 in export markets.
China’s ability to maintain fertilizer supply security protects its agricultural productivity and reduces incentives for farmers to switch to less nitrogen-intensive crops. Conversely, countries dependent on expensive imports risk crop shifts, threatening food security and farmers’ incomes.
Opportunities for Zimbabwe as a coal producer
Zimbabwe, with abundant coal reserves and proximity to South-East Asia markets through regional corridors, stands poised to capitalise on growing coal demand tied to chemical industries like fertiliser manufacturing. Investments in rail upgrades, energy sector reforms, and bilateral trade agreements with China could open pathways for expanding coal exports.
Such developments would support Zimbabwe’s mining-led economic growth while strengthening strategic partnerships with China amid rising energy and food security concerns globally.
Looking ahead
In summary, while Zimbabwe’s coal currently plays a modest role in China’s massive coal imports, there is significant potential to deepen this relationship. Developing export infrastructure and forging targeted partnerships could position Zimbabwe as a vital player in supply chains underpinning China’s resilient fertiliser production.
This synergy aligns with Zimbabwe’s National Development Strategy 1 ambitions for mining value addition, industrial transformation, and contributing to sustainable agricultural systems both domestically and across the region.
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