Zimbabwe’s Record Tobacco Crop Meets A Brutal 2026 Market
The bales at Northern Tobacco’s floor in Harare seem endless this year. Row after row of tightly packed, golden leaf stretches across the concrete, a visual sign of a record crop. Yet for many Zimbabwean growers filing past the auction boards, that abundance feels less like success and more like a trap.
Prices have slumped. Costs have climbed. And the farmers who should be celebrating a strong season are instead clutching thin payment slips and wondering how they will plant again.
Thousands of tobacco farmers across Zimbabwe say they are frustrated with the low prices on offer during the 2026 marketing season, pointing to a widening gap between what they earn and what it now costs to produce the crop. Many describe an oversupplied market that is pushing prices down and threatening the long-term viability of small-scale production.
Farmers Count The Cost Of A Record Crop
For Forget Kasamu, a small-scale grower from Mount Darwin in Mashonaland Central, the numbers have never looked this bad in 45 years of farming tobacco.
“I received far less than I expected. I’ve been a tobacco farmer for 45 years, but I can’t believe what happened today after selling my tobacco. It fetched US$1,10 per kilogram,” he told Farmer’s Weekly after selling at Harare’s Tobacco Sales Floor (TSF).
Kasamu moved 10 bales at TSF and walked away with about US$800. On paper, that might sound substantial. On the ground, it does not stretch far.
“I don’t know how I’m going to get through this. I still have transport costs of US$18 per bale, and I have six workers who need to be paid,” he said.
Inputs, fertiliser, labour, barn fuel, and transport all swallowed cash throughout the season. Kasamu had expected the marketing floor to close that circle. Instead, he fears a hole where his next season’s budget should be.
“Yes, I will bring more bales, but I don’t know how I will recoup all my expenses, including input costs,” he added.
His story echoes across Mashonaland and beyond. Rising production costs and disappointing prices at auction are raising sharp questions about whether small-scale growers can remain in the tobacco game at all.
Auction Floors Under Pressure
Celani Ndlovu, head of sales and marketing at TSF, does not dispute that prices have been painful this year.
He confirmed that tobacco prices at the auction floor have fallen as low as US$0,80 per kilogram this season — a level that leaves many growers deep in the red.
“TSF is an auction floor where farmers bring their tobacco and merchants bid for it,” Ndlovu said. “We do not impose prices. Our role is to facilitate transactions and earn a commission on sales conducted through our platform. The merchants determine the prices, and the Tobacco Industry & Marketing Board is responsible for grading the tobacco.”
Ndlovu reminded growers that they are not locked into accepting a disappointing bid.
“If a farmer is not happy with the price being offered, he or she has the right to pull out their bales,” he said.
In reality, though, many cash-strapped farmers arrive at the floors with debts due and few alternatives. With transport already paid and workers to settle, the choice to withdraw bales is not as simple as it appears on paper.
FFA Explainer:
Zimbabwe operates a dual system for tobacco marketing. At auction floors, independent farmers deliver their bales and merchants bid openly, with prices set by demand on the day. Under contract schemes, companies provide inputs and support during the season and buy the crop directly from their growers at prices they set within agreed bands. Each system carries different risks and levels of support.
Contract Farmers Faring Better, But Not Smiling
On the contract side of the industry, the tone is slightly less bleak, but expectations have still taken a knock.
In Wedza, Mashonaland East, contracted farmer Charles Mutikwa says 2026’s prices fall short of what he had hoped for, even if they beat auction levels.
“The prices this season are not appetising, but contracting companies like Northern Tobacco are paying better than the auction floors,” he said.
Mutikwa’s own numbers underline why many growers still choose contract arrangements. “Last year, I sold 60 bales and, after all deductions, I was left with a net income of US$9 000. Today, I brought 21 bales and I am expecting to bring another 15 bales,” he said.
Even with deductions for inputs, a clear net income gives him room to plan and reinvest — something many auction farmers are struggling to do this year.
For Linda Chibwe from Shamva in Mashonaland Central, a contract with Northern Tobacco has at least removed the uncertainty of relying on others to handle her sales.
“Before I got a contract with Northern Tobacco, I used to pay other farmers to sell my tobacco, but that was costly and demanding,” she said. “Now I have my own contract, but the prices this year are not as good as they were last season. I have brought 14 bales and I am waiting to see how the sales go.”
Her experience speaks to a wider pattern this season: relative shelter under contract, but no one is untouched by the global price squeeze.
Global Oversupply Hits Local Pockets
The Tobacco Industry & Marketing Board (TIMB) traces the problem back to simple supply-and-demand arithmetic — not just in Harare, but on a global scale.
“Our assessment is that the current low prices are a result of prevailing supply and demand dynamics,” said TIMB public relations specialist, Chelesani Tsarwe.
She stressed that this is not a uniquely Zimbabwean crisis.
“This challenge is not unique to Zimbabwe. Other major tobacco-producing countries, including Brazil, Malawi, Tanzania, and Zambia, are experiencing similar market conditions due to increased production,” Tsarwe said.
As more leaf pours onto world markets, buyers have more choice and less pressure to bid prices up. Growers in Mount Darwin, Lilongwe, and southern Brazil all feel the same squeeze.
TIMB says it continues to monitor marketing activities at all selling points to promote fair trading practices and enforce compliance across the industry. Tsarwe emphasised the regulator’s commitment to protecting growers’ interests by tackling side marketing and upholding regulations along the tobacco value chain.
Contract Companies Talk Sustainability
Contractors insist they are trying to cushion farmers against the worst of the downturn. Northern Tobacco, one of the major players, says its contracted growers are generally achieving stronger prices than those on auction.
“Our average prices range between US$2,50 and US$5,50 per kilogram, because we are committed to maintaining long-term relationships with our farmers,” said Kelvin Choga, coordinator of small-scale farmers at Northern Tobacco.
He explained that the company’s support package aims to keep farmers in business, not just buy their crop.
“As a contracting company, we provide farmers with inputs, fertilisers, pesticides, and transport assistance to ensure their tobacco reaches the selling floors. We also strive to offer farmer-friendly prices that enable growers to clear their debts and prepare for future production,” Choga said.
He noted that Northern Tobacco has recorded a significant increase in deliveries this season, reflecting a surge in production among contracted farmers. That very success, though, feeds the oversupply that now weighs on the broader market.
FFA Explainer:
Contract farming can stabilise growers’ access to inputs and markets, but it also concentrates risk. When global prices fall, both companies and farmers sit on more tobacco than the market wants. Managing that volume — through better forecasting, diversification, or value addition — becomes critical.
Beyond Price: Labour, Trees, And Community
While money dominates the conversations this season, regulators are also sharpening their focus on how tobacco is produced.
Tsarwe said TIMB has strengthened oversight mechanisms for the 2025/26 season in response to concerns over child labour, deforestation, and broader sustainability.
“We are enforcing mandatory monitoring of all tobacco contractors on environmental, social, and governance issues to ensure responsible and ethical tobacco production,” she said. “These measures are aimed at promoting sustainability while safeguarding the welfare of farming communities and the environment.”
That aligns with Zimbabwe’s commitments under National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1), the AU Agenda 2063, and UN SDG 15 on life on land. But for a farmer who has just seen his price fall to US$1,10/kg, sustainability talk can feel distant unless it comes with a concrete plan to keep the business afloat.
Information Gaps And The Need To Plan Production
Agricultural economist Willard Munangi believes better market intelligence could have softened this year’s blow.
“The prices are not appealing because the crop flooded the market, resulting in lower prices. Many farmers failed to make a profit this season,” he said.
He argues that both contractors and TIMB should share more timely, detailed market information so farmers can adjust planting before the damage is done.
Munangi says growers need early warnings and realistic forecasts to help align output with likely demand instead of flying blind into an oversupplied season.
FFA Explainer:
Market education goes beyond announcing seasonal averages. It can include pre-planting briefings on expected global demand, recommended hectare targets per district, scenarios for different price bands, and training on alternative crops. When farmers understand the odds, they can make more deliberate choices about how much tobacco to plant — or whether to diversify.
What Options Do Smallholders Have Now?
For farmers like Kasamu, the immediate concern is survival, not long-term market design. Yet this bleak season is also forcing a wider conversation that touches every part of Zimbabwe’s rural economy.
Under NDS1, tobacco remains a headline export earner, a pillar of foreign currency and a key employer in Mashonaland and Manicaland. At the same time, the policy framework calls for diversification, climate-smart production, and better protection for women, youth, and children in agriculture.
Some practical steps are already visible on the ground:
- Farmer groups in districts such as Karoi and Hwedza are pushing for stronger bargaining power and shared transport to reduce costs per bale;
- Youth and women’s clubs are testing rotations into soya bean, sunflower, and horticulture to spread risk beyond a single cash crop;
- Timber-lot projects around curing barns are slowly replacing the indiscriminate cutting of indigenous woodlots.
None of these shifts will change prices at TSF this week. But they hint at how the sector might move from a feast-or-famine cycle towards something more resilient.
Back at the auction floor, as more trucks line up and fresh bales are rolled onto the concrete, the contradictions of Zimbabwe’s 2026 tobacco season are laid bare. The country has proved it can produce leaf in sheer volume. The challenge now is making sure that effort pays — not only for exporters and contractors, but for the smallholder who still has to find cash for transport, wages, school fees, and one more round of seed.
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